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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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