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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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