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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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