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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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Showing 2461 to 2465 news of total 6871 |
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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