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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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