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Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the global economy undergoes structural changes, so does the derived ocean shipping activity, principally epitomized by the following abnormal trends:
(i) Constrained financing,
(ii) Deflation in asset prices, and
(iii) Shift in demand growth.
Constrained financing
First, ship financing in all of its forms is very restricted and will remain so in the years to come. There has been just one shipping IPO this year raising a mere $7m! Following the 2008 financial crisis, the excessively detailed banking legislation enacted, has forced bankers to spend more time filling out forms for regulators rather than understanding better their clients and the industry.
Despite monetary expansion, banks are not lending the excess supply of money but rather hoarding it. If you think this scarcity of financing is temporary and that the implications of Basel III have already been felt, you are simply wrong. In 2018 we also anticipate the IFRS 9 to take effect contributing to earlier recognition of credit losses, making it more expensive and difficult for banks to lend. So, via upcoming regulations, deleveraging will intensify both in the west and in emerging markets. Only the best buyers will receive money, good luck to smaller companies!
Deflation in asset prices
Second, the cost of creating new shipping assets, i.e., shipbuilding prices, are low, will get lower and will remain low for some time. Shipping deflation is due to vast manufacturing overcapacity from the previous cycle and technological change. We will experience newbuilding prices lower than the 2012 ones which at the time represented multi-year lows.
The Japanese shipbuilding prices, the premium in the sector, are correcting thanks also to the Yen now standing at 111 a dollar vs. 76 in 2012, while Chinese Builders, the floor of shipbuilding values, offer aggressive pricing assisted by the Yuan devaluations.
In S. Korea, we expect consolidation and further correction of prices following the recent elections. The abovementioned lack of financing will keep newbuilding appetite subdued for long. This will further drive prices down. And since newbuilding prices are in a sense an upper bound for second-hand prices in normal freight conditions, asset prices will stay deflated endangering the plans of opportunistic asset players.
Shift in demand growth
Third, there is a shift in growth as we transition from an industrial into a services and consumer economy. GDP growth per se, especially if anemic as it stands today, will not suffice to generate strong seaborne demand. However, with limited financing we can’t anticipate anything exciting on the physical side. The historical correlations and >1 multipliers between GDP and seaborne trade documented over several decades have been broken the last years and specifically last year seaborne trade growth was outnumbered by GDP growth. There are fears that outsourcing and globalization are reaching their limits and there are early signs of near sourcing and nationalization. Fighting pollution will remain a long-term driver, with its implications on coal, oil and regulations. Gas is coming catalyzed by shale developments!
We have indeed a new shipping abnormal -with constrained financing, assets deflation and shift in demand- and it is likely to stay with us for long. On the rosy side, the first two trends, will alleviate the two major causes of the ongoing crisis: exogenous money and excessive yard capacity.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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Showing 2491 to 2495 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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