We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the global economy undergoes structural changes, so does the derived ocean shipping activity, principally epitomized by the following abnormal trends:
(i) Constrained financing,
(ii) Deflation in asset prices, and
(iii) Shift in demand growth.
Constrained financing
First, ship financing in all of its forms is very restricted and will remain so in the years to come. There has been just one shipping IPO this year raising a mere $7m! Following the 2008 financial crisis, the excessively detailed banking legislation enacted, has forced bankers to spend more time filling out forms for regulators rather than understanding better their clients and the industry.
Despite monetary expansion, banks are not lending the excess supply of money but rather hoarding it. If you think this scarcity of financing is temporary and that the implications of Basel III have already been felt, you are simply wrong. In 2018 we also anticipate the IFRS 9 to take effect contributing to earlier recognition of credit losses, making it more expensive and difficult for banks to lend. So, via upcoming regulations, deleveraging will intensify both in the west and in emerging markets. Only the best buyers will receive money, good luck to smaller companies!
Deflation in asset prices
Second, the cost of creating new shipping assets, i.e., shipbuilding prices, are low, will get lower and will remain low for some time. Shipping deflation is due to vast manufacturing overcapacity from the previous cycle and technological change. We will experience newbuilding prices lower than the 2012 ones which at the time represented multi-year lows.
The Japanese shipbuilding prices, the premium in the sector, are correcting thanks also to the Yen now standing at 111 a dollar vs. 76 in 2012, while Chinese Builders, the floor of shipbuilding values, offer aggressive pricing assisted by the Yuan devaluations.
In S. Korea, we expect consolidation and further correction of prices following the recent elections. The abovementioned lack of financing will keep newbuilding appetite subdued for long. This will further drive prices down. And since newbuilding prices are in a sense an upper bound for second-hand prices in normal freight conditions, asset prices will stay deflated endangering the plans of opportunistic asset players.
Shift in demand growth
Third, there is a shift in growth as we transition from an industrial into a services and consumer economy. GDP growth per se, especially if anemic as it stands today, will not suffice to generate strong seaborne demand. However, with limited financing we can’t anticipate anything exciting on the physical side. The historical correlations and >1 multipliers between GDP and seaborne trade documented over several decades have been broken the last years and specifically last year seaborne trade growth was outnumbered by GDP growth. There are fears that outsourcing and globalization are reaching their limits and there are early signs of near sourcing and nationalization. Fighting pollution will remain a long-term driver, with its implications on coal, oil and regulations. Gas is coming catalyzed by shale developments!
We have indeed a new shipping abnormal -with constrained financing, assets deflation and shift in demand- and it is likely to stay with us for long. On the rosy side, the first two trends, will alleviate the two major causes of the ongoing crisis: exogenous money and excessive yard capacity.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of 4,600 kcal/kg NAR coal for ...
Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH AFRICA RB1 COAL HAS LOST GROUND IN INDIA; RB2 MAY LOSE GRIP IF THE PRICE CROSSES US$ 50 A TON - TRADERS
COALspot.com: Indian coal consumers preferred to buy South Africa RB2 coal instead of RB1 coal recent months due to RB2's low CFR price level. ...
Monday, 18 April 16
CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE 44.66 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 15 April 16
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUES TO FIRM - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a positive freight market for the past few weeks, however, this week the market is taking a small breather, says Fearnleys in it ...
Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
|
|
|
Showing 2471 to 2475 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
