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Wednesday, 16 March 16
OIL SUPPLY OUTPACES DEMAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL ARE BEING STORED RATHER THAN CONSUMED - CHRISTOPHER
 Oil producers have turned to the concept of limiting their output to January levels as a certain form of action to boost prices that have fallen more than 70% since the middle of 2014. Oil supply outpaces demand on any given day, and billions of barrels of oil are being stored rather than consumed. As a result, oil prices have collapsed to as low as $26 per barrel in February, from well over $100 in 2014.
It is interesting that currently, Iran and Iraq both play an important role in the contemplated production freeze. Iran has already been increasing production and the country’s position is that it would consider oil-production caps only after the country’s output rises back to the levels before the West imposed sanctions over its nuclear program.
Basically Iran wants to increase production now, in an attempt to revive their share in the global markets, before they even consider discussing about participating in an output freeze. Iraq also has a longstanding policy of seeking to raise production regardless of the price-stabilizing policies of the OPEC.
Russia said that OPEC’s meeting with other key oil producers regarding an output freeze will probably be held in Doha, Qatar in April. They said that Iran supports the plan, while Tehran says it wants to double its crude exports to 4 million bpd first.
However, in reality according to the latest oil market data, both Russia and Saudi Arabia ramped up their oil production in February, despite talks about supply caps. Russian oil supply reached a new high of 11.08 million barrels a day in February, and Saudi Arabia during the same month increased its daily output by 14,000 barrels, to 10.14 million barrels per day, according to OPEC's analysis of market sources.
Generally speaking, countries are less willing to freeze and especially to cut production, because doing so means giving up market share for their oil, which might be hard to win back especially during this transition period. The four major oil powers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar, are heavily involved in the various discussions and the coordinated efforts will probably include soon also non OPEC countries such as Oman, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Assuming all are on board, the oil glut could begin to ease, particularly with American output on the decline. Or at least that is what they anticipate with this concept.
The fact is that a two million barrel-per-day surplus in oil supplies will continue to weigh on prices in the short term and even if these countries freeze output, they would still need more drastic efforts to support prices in the long term.
From my own perspective, it looks like their ultimate goal is to reach a certain consensus and, if they actually get there, I would expect them to quickly focus on actually reducing production in the long term. In any case, analysts estimate that maintaining production at current levels will probably not have a significant effect on prices.
Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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