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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
 The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substantial period of time, has now everyone wondering; how long can it last and what are those developments that could expedite the recovery.
According to our data for vessels above 20,000dwt, 2016 deliveries amount to 887 vessels, a scary number indeed even if one takes into account expected slippage. On the balancing side is of course demolition activity. A little less than 400 vessels were sent for scrap last year, while in the first six weeks of 2016 alone we count 83 demo sales. If scrapping activity for the rest of the year continues at this pace, demolition activity this year will easily top 2015.
Every single market participant is now anxious to see how rates will behave once the Chinese New Year festivities are over. At the same time, fundamentals for the big bulkers, the trade of which is closely tight to China, remain challenging. Chinese iron ore imports, despite reaching record levels, have been unable to help Capesize rates, while coal imports to the country are still pointing to a strong trend of declining consumption.
Lay-ups, an extreme thought not too long ago, have now become an everyday topic amongst owners. We also observe on a weekly basis that the number of 15yrs old vessels available for sale increases, while their owners are now more at ease with the idea of even selling them for scrap. Asset prices have naturally been plunging. Below are some representative example of the sharp fall.
Capesize
The “Nordtramp” - 170k dwt blt 2001 Koyo, Japan was sold last year at $17.1m, while the “Kohyohsan” - 172k dwt blt 2001 NKK, Japan was sold recently at $5.0m. Moreover, this summer we saw the “Churchill Bulker” - 179k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea committed in August at $37.0m, eventually failing and being sold three months later at $28.5m, 23% less. Two weeks ago the “Obelix” 180k dwt blt 2011 Imabari, Japan, was reported sold at $23.5m. Since the beginning of 2016, 22 Capesize vessels have been sold for demo, while 21 have been delivered.
Panamax
The “Thalia” - 75k dwt blt 2001 Hitachi, Japan was sold twelve months ago at $9.5m, while last week the “Cymbeline” - 73k dwt blt 2001, Sumitomo, Japan was sold at $3.3m a decrease of about 65%. The “Unity Pride” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S.Korea was sold at $17.6m back in April 2015. At Christmas we saw the “Archimedes” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea being sold at $14.5m, failing and coming up for sale once again, with interested parties not willing to offer above $12.0m. Since the beginning of 2016 a number of 33 vessels have been sold for demo, while 30 have been delivered.
It is definitely the “buy low” phase of this cycle. This of course is something that naturally leaves owners striving to survive utterly indifferent at the moment and logically so. But for the more fortunate ones, with cash to support their investment for a reasonable time, the opportunity to renew their fleet is undeniable.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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