We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
 The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destinations across the globe; it is too complex to single out whether this is positive or negative for the seaborne dry bulk transport demand. Going forward, the Chinese steel industry is set to grow its global market share, currently at 50%. Depending on domestic steel consumption in China, use of domestically mined iron ore and profitability in the steel industry, the dry bulk market will be impacted. Chinese steel prices have risen since mid-December and currently, sit at the highest level since October 2015. International iron ore prices could slide further during 2016 as supply exceeds demand.
Since August 2015, dry bulk freight rates have continuously been eroded by deteriorating market conditions. As of 11 January 2016, daily freight rates ranged from USD 3,361 per day for a panamax ship to USD 4,416 per day for a supramax.
The brief lift in capesize rates at the end of November may be explained by the record-high import of relatively cheap iron ore into China. More shipments from Brazil contributed to this lift, squeezing out more domestically produced ore. No less than 96.3 million tons of iron ore were discharged in China in December 2015. This brought the full year total up to 952.7 million tons, 2.2% more than in 2014.
Whereas total transported volumes in 2015 are estimated to have stayed unchanged from 2014, some commodities set new records, while others dropped in significant volume. One of the highlights was soybeans, which also saw a new record high of imports into China in 2015. While soybean import into any other country hasn’t grown for two decades, Chinese imports went from barely anything to 81.7 million tons. China took 9.1 million in December alone, primarily for animal feed.
Despite these record numbers of imported commodities, dry bulk freight rates remain very low. This demonstrates the serious problem of the current market conditions for dry bulk shipping.
Supply
The prices offered to owners who wanted to sell their ship for demolition in the past year were very disappointing. All of the shipbreaking nations have been offered cheap new Chinese steel and accepted the offers. This floored the prices for scrap steel in nations that used to rely on it for around 80% of their steel demand.
Nevertheless, the freight market remains the most significant factor behind the decision to scrap a ship or continue trading. During 2016, BIMCO forecasts that dry bulk shipping capacity of 40 million DWT will be sold for demolition, making 2016 the busiest year on record for shipbreaking.
Despite devastating market conditions in 2015, “only” 30 million DWT were demolished. Considering the factors mentioned above, this illustrates that the pool of ready-to-break ships is not vast, but even a modest improvement in the freight rates causes demolition to halt.
Limiting the inflow of new capacity into the market going forward also requires a low level of new orders to be placed. In that sense, 1.4 million DWT of new capacity ordered during Q4-2015 is just what is needed. For 2015 as a whole, 17.7 million DWT was ordered. The lowest amount since 2001. Hopefully, 2016 will see even lower dry bulk tonnage being ordered.
For 2016, BIMCO expects new deliveries of 50 million DWT despite extensive postponements, delays and rescheduling. On record for scheduled deliveries, Clarksons report 92 million DWT for 2016. BIMCO assess that 40% of the scheduled deliveries will be delayed by one year. Moreover, the majority of the capacity will be delivered in first half of the year.
The distribution of new capacity is likely to remain unchanged from 2015. In round numbers that mean: 40% of the new capacity will be delivered into the capesize segment, 20% into panamax, 30 % into handymax and 10% into the handysize segment.
Outlook
If the CISA (China Iron & Steel Assoc.) forecast for a drop in steel production from 806 million tons to 783 million tons in China becomes reality, less iron ore is needed. Depending on the required mix of domestic/imported ore, shipping will be affected. China remains the key driver of the dry bulk market, for better or worse. Volumes are still huge but growth rates are likely to be very low and probably negative for some commodities.
BIMCO forecasts coal imports into both India and China will go down in 2016, following the trend of 2015.Volume losses into India in 2015 were not originally predicted. This went against a multiyear growth trend over the previous years. But, the domestic coal production rose on the back of some political decisions, which seem to work against dry bulk imports.
2016 is also likely to see a return of India to the iron ore export market – something that will be a positive for seaborne demand if market share is taken from Australian exporters, but a negative if it limits Brazilian Asia-bound exports.
For the coming months: January-April, BIMCO expects transported volumes to diminish as they traditionally do from the fourth quarter to the first. This increases a fundamental imbalance as the delivery of new ships in recent years has followed the opposite pattern. That is more new ships are being delivered early in a new year rather than late in the year just about to end, achieving the newest “year of built” for the record. As we move into the second quarter the downward pressure should ease somewhat.
BIMCO remains worried about the sustainability of freight rates in 2016. The demand side seems unable to buoy profits as both Chinese and Indian growth cools off and the rest of the world is still importing smaller volumes than before the financial crisis of 2008.
A new record of shipbreaking volumes in 2016 could limit fleet growth to just 10 million DWT, so in fact “all we need” is an increase in transported volumes to around 60 million tons to balance out the inflow. As little as this may seem, growing from a base of 4,700 million tons – it can prove to be a high bar to jump before we start eating into the significant oversupply of ships.
Source: BIMCO
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
|
|
|
Showing 2591 to 2595 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
