We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
 The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destinations across the globe; it is too complex to single out whether this is positive or negative for the seaborne dry bulk transport demand. Going forward, the Chinese steel industry is set to grow its global market share, currently at 50%. Depending on domestic steel consumption in China, use of domestically mined iron ore and profitability in the steel industry, the dry bulk market will be impacted. Chinese steel prices have risen since mid-December and currently, sit at the highest level since October 2015. International iron ore prices could slide further during 2016 as supply exceeds demand.
Since August 2015, dry bulk freight rates have continuously been eroded by deteriorating market conditions. As of 11 January 2016, daily freight rates ranged from USD 3,361 per day for a panamax ship to USD 4,416 per day for a supramax.
The brief lift in capesize rates at the end of November may be explained by the record-high import of relatively cheap iron ore into China. More shipments from Brazil contributed to this lift, squeezing out more domestically produced ore. No less than 96.3 million tons of iron ore were discharged in China in December 2015. This brought the full year total up to 952.7 million tons, 2.2% more than in 2014.
Whereas total transported volumes in 2015 are estimated to have stayed unchanged from 2014, some commodities set new records, while others dropped in significant volume. One of the highlights was soybeans, which also saw a new record high of imports into China in 2015. While soybean import into any other country hasn’t grown for two decades, Chinese imports went from barely anything to 81.7 million tons. China took 9.1 million in December alone, primarily for animal feed.
Despite these record numbers of imported commodities, dry bulk freight rates remain very low. This demonstrates the serious problem of the current market conditions for dry bulk shipping.
Supply
The prices offered to owners who wanted to sell their ship for demolition in the past year were very disappointing. All of the shipbreaking nations have been offered cheap new Chinese steel and accepted the offers. This floored the prices for scrap steel in nations that used to rely on it for around 80% of their steel demand.
Nevertheless, the freight market remains the most significant factor behind the decision to scrap a ship or continue trading. During 2016, BIMCO forecasts that dry bulk shipping capacity of 40 million DWT will be sold for demolition, making 2016 the busiest year on record for shipbreaking.
Despite devastating market conditions in 2015, “only” 30 million DWT were demolished. Considering the factors mentioned above, this illustrates that the pool of ready-to-break ships is not vast, but even a modest improvement in the freight rates causes demolition to halt.
Limiting the inflow of new capacity into the market going forward also requires a low level of new orders to be placed. In that sense, 1.4 million DWT of new capacity ordered during Q4-2015 is just what is needed. For 2015 as a whole, 17.7 million DWT was ordered. The lowest amount since 2001. Hopefully, 2016 will see even lower dry bulk tonnage being ordered.
For 2016, BIMCO expects new deliveries of 50 million DWT despite extensive postponements, delays and rescheduling. On record for scheduled deliveries, Clarksons report 92 million DWT for 2016. BIMCO assess that 40% of the scheduled deliveries will be delayed by one year. Moreover, the majority of the capacity will be delivered in first half of the year.
The distribution of new capacity is likely to remain unchanged from 2015. In round numbers that mean: 40% of the new capacity will be delivered into the capesize segment, 20% into panamax, 30 % into handymax and 10% into the handysize segment.
Outlook
If the CISA (China Iron & Steel Assoc.) forecast for a drop in steel production from 806 million tons to 783 million tons in China becomes reality, less iron ore is needed. Depending on the required mix of domestic/imported ore, shipping will be affected. China remains the key driver of the dry bulk market, for better or worse. Volumes are still huge but growth rates are likely to be very low and probably negative for some commodities.
BIMCO forecasts coal imports into both India and China will go down in 2016, following the trend of 2015.Volume losses into India in 2015 were not originally predicted. This went against a multiyear growth trend over the previous years. But, the domestic coal production rose on the back of some political decisions, which seem to work against dry bulk imports.
2016 is also likely to see a return of India to the iron ore export market – something that will be a positive for seaborne demand if market share is taken from Australian exporters, but a negative if it limits Brazilian Asia-bound exports.
For the coming months: January-April, BIMCO expects transported volumes to diminish as they traditionally do from the fourth quarter to the first. This increases a fundamental imbalance as the delivery of new ships in recent years has followed the opposite pattern. That is more new ships are being delivered early in a new year rather than late in the year just about to end, achieving the newest “year of built” for the record. As we move into the second quarter the downward pressure should ease somewhat.
BIMCO remains worried about the sustainability of freight rates in 2016. The demand side seems unable to buoy profits as both Chinese and Indian growth cools off and the rest of the world is still importing smaller volumes than before the financial crisis of 2008.
A new record of shipbreaking volumes in 2016 could limit fleet growth to just 10 million DWT, so in fact “all we need” is an increase in transported volumes to around 60 million tons to balance out the inflow. As little as this may seem, growing from a base of 4,700 million tons – it can prove to be a high bar to jump before we start eating into the significant oversupply of ships.
Source: BIMCO
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
|
|
|
Showing 2581 to 2585 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
