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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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