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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
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Showing 2716 to 2720 news of total 6871 |
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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