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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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