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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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