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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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