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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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