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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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