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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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