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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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