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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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