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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 20 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
BUKIT ASAM'S AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE WAS UNDER PRESSURE DURING Q1
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s state owned coal producer saw their profits fall in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
IRON ORE PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON LOW DEMAND, HIGH OUTPUT - FITCH
Iron ore prices will stay low for several years due to increasing supply, weak demand growth in China and the slower-than-expected closure of high- ...
Tuesday, 19 May 15
KOMIPO IS SEEKING TOTAL 2.34 MMT OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR 2015 - 2017
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 2.34 million Metric Tons (MT) of HCV ...
Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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