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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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