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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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