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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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