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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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