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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 2.32 ...
Monday, 22 June 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 140K MT OF LCV COAL FOR AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase 140K Metric Tons (MT) of LCV coal for ...
Monday, 22 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: UP MONTH OVER MONTH; DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.30 (0.58%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 22 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: UP WEEK OVER WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.54 per MT (1.19%) month over month to US$ 45.87 per mt. The swap was ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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