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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
 The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressure on owners, many of whom are subject to earnings close to operating costs. This has triggered a surge in bulkcarrier demolition since the beginning of 2015. If the current rate of scrapping were to continue, there would be a clear impact on dry bulk fleet growth.
A Surge In Scrapping
Bulker demolition has surged in recent months, due to an oversupplied fleet, cooling global dry bulk trade growth and low vessel earnings. A total of 78 vessels (of a combined 5.9m dwt) were reported scrapped in the first two months of 2015, equivalent to 35% of total bulkcarrier demolition in 2014. Capesize scrapping totalled 3.3m dwt, accounting for 56% of all bulker demolition in the two month period, already equivalent to around 80% of scrapping in the sector last year. The average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century.
How Does It Compare?
The annual record level of bulker demolition was 33.4m dwt in 2012, coinciding with a 30% y-o-y drop in average earnings. While earnings were weak, some market indicators were considerably better than they are today. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew 7% (with 3% projected for this year) and the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 900, far above the record low of 509 reached in February 2015. In the first two months of 2015 overall bulker earnings averaged $6,545/day: around $2,000/day less than the annual average for 2012. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that demolition is surging.
The Uneven Distribution
There are several potential impacts of growth in demolition. The Chinese bulkcarrier fleet shrank in 2014, partly due to the government scrapping subsidy. The subsidy is currently set to end this year and with many of the vessels scrapped in the year to date being Chinese-owned, this could shrink the Chinese fleet further. Also, the faster pace of Handysize demolition in Q1 2015 has led the Handymax sector to consolidate its position as the largest in the dry bulk fleet in terms of vessel numbers.
An Interesting Scenario
One very important impact of the surge is the potential stemming of fleet growth. Total bulker scrapping is currently projected to increase by around 30% y-o-y, to reach 21.2m dwt in 2015. However, at the current pace of scrapping, demolition in Q1 2015 could approach a record level, and in the full year, over 35m dwt of bulkers would be scrapped, more than doubling last year’s total. This could slow growth in the bulkcarrier fleet to around 2.5% y-o-y, which would represent the slowest rate in more than a decade. In this scenario Capesize fleet growth would be limited to around 2-3%.
So demolition is surging, and could approach record levels, altering the make-up of the bulker fleet, in terms of age, the distribution across sectors and owner nationality. And whether records are broken or not this year, the increase in demolition will have a clear impact on the rate of fleet expansion.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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