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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
 The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressure on owners, many of whom are subject to earnings close to operating costs. This has triggered a surge in bulkcarrier demolition since the beginning of 2015. If the current rate of scrapping were to continue, there would be a clear impact on dry bulk fleet growth.
A Surge In Scrapping
Bulker demolition has surged in recent months, due to an oversupplied fleet, cooling global dry bulk trade growth and low vessel earnings. A total of 78 vessels (of a combined 5.9m dwt) were reported scrapped in the first two months of 2015, equivalent to 35% of total bulkcarrier demolition in 2014. Capesize scrapping totalled 3.3m dwt, accounting for 56% of all bulker demolition in the two month period, already equivalent to around 80% of scrapping in the sector last year. The average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century.
How Does It Compare?
The annual record level of bulker demolition was 33.4m dwt in 2012, coinciding with a 30% y-o-y drop in average earnings. While earnings were weak, some market indicators were considerably better than they are today. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew 7% (with 3% projected for this year) and the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 900, far above the record low of 509 reached in February 2015. In the first two months of 2015 overall bulker earnings averaged $6,545/day: around $2,000/day less than the annual average for 2012. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that demolition is surging.
The Uneven Distribution
There are several potential impacts of growth in demolition. The Chinese bulkcarrier fleet shrank in 2014, partly due to the government scrapping subsidy. The subsidy is currently set to end this year and with many of the vessels scrapped in the year to date being Chinese-owned, this could shrink the Chinese fleet further. Also, the faster pace of Handysize demolition in Q1 2015 has led the Handymax sector to consolidate its position as the largest in the dry bulk fleet in terms of vessel numbers.
An Interesting Scenario
One very important impact of the surge is the potential stemming of fleet growth. Total bulker scrapping is currently projected to increase by around 30% y-o-y, to reach 21.2m dwt in 2015. However, at the current pace of scrapping, demolition in Q1 2015 could approach a record level, and in the full year, over 35m dwt of bulkers would be scrapped, more than doubling last year’s total. This could slow growth in the bulkcarrier fleet to around 2.5% y-o-y, which would represent the slowest rate in more than a decade. In this scenario Capesize fleet growth would be limited to around 2-3%.
So demolition is surging, and could approach record levels, altering the make-up of the bulker fleet, in terms of age, the distribution across sectors and owner nationality. And whether records are broken or not this year, the increase in demolition will have a clear impact on the rate of fleet expansion.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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