We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
 COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & Mining Consultant for Wood Mackenzie says there is little to suggest the picture is likely to pick up in 2015 with demand set to remain "slower not lower" and therefore prices will remain low for longer.
Addressing delegates at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town, Mr Emslie asserts; "It’s hard to believe, but 2015 has started even worse than 2014 finished. Having commenced January just above US$70 a tonne , the TSI 62% Index was trading at US$62/t by the close of the month resulting in a monthly average of US$67/t CFR – its lowest since May 2009."
According to Wood Mackenzie's iron ore market outlook, demand is unlikely to show any meaningful improvement until late Q1 or early Q2 due to a combination of seasonal and cyclical reasons. Mr Emslie adds: "We have lowered our Q1-15 price forecast to US$67/t CFR and our CY-15 price to US$70/t CFR (basis 62% Fe sinter fines)."
Explaining Wood Mackenzie's short-term outlook in more detail Mr Emslie says: "Iron ore prices may be languishing at their lowest level for nearly six years, but it remains difficult to make a positive case for prices in the short term. Chinese steel mills have cut production in recent weeks due to a combination of weak demand and planned maintenance and this is feeding through directly to iron ore requirements. With the Lunar New Year holidays just a few weeks away Chinese steel production will get worse before it gets better. Steel mills will not re-stock in a falling or stagnant market and when they do there should be plenty of slack in the system, as shown by the high level of inventory held at Chinese mines.
Outside of China the picture is similarly uninspiring due to a combination of seasonal and structural factors. Other than the Middle East and India none of the major iron ore importers have shown any meaningful improvement in demand, a situation that is unlikely to change in the short term."
"The outlook for Q2 is marginally better: Chinese mills should start re-stocking post Lunar New Year, driven by seasonally stronger domestic demand and a pick-up in exports of steel products. This should coincide with slightly tighter seaborne supply as Australian exports reach a temporary plateau and high cost suppliers elsewhere remain out of the market."
Wood Mackenzie warns that if the iron ore price remains in the low $60/t range then more closures from mid-tier producers seem likely and more asset write-downs are a near certainty: "As recent announcements show, there’s only so far that cost cutting can go before difficult decisions need to be taken concerning the long term viability of a mine in a structurally oversupplied market," Mr Emslie adds.
So what led to the collapse in prices? "Australian exports surged ahead by approximately 140 million tonnes (Mt) in 2014 based on investment decisions made several years ago when prices were higher and the long term view was more bullish," says Mr Emslie, "As supply ramped up in 2014, Chinese steel demand did the unthinkable and contracted for the year creating a clear disconnect between supply and demand, marking a decisive turning point for iron ore."
On Chinese imports, which crucially account for 66% of the global total, Mr Emslie says: "2014 finished on a high for Chinese imports (in volume terms not value) with China importing a record 86.9Mt in December." The total value of Chinese imports (in US dollar terms) fell in 2014, despite the volume rising by over 100Mt. Mr Emslie explains; "China’s import bill for iron ore peaked at $112 billion in 2011 (when iron ore prices averaged $168/t) but have subsequently fallen by 16% to $95 billion in 2014. China should see another significant drop in its iron ore import bill in 2015 as significantly lower prices and freight costs more than offset higher volume. We currently forecast a 30Mt rise in Chinese imports of iron ore this year with strong growth in Australian shipments partially offset by price related cutbacks elsewhere."
Pointing to more recent to iron ore news from Australia in January Mr Emslie comments on the impact of sustained oversupply; "The series of announcements and data we've seen provides further evidence of the widening gap between the major miners and the rest of the supply chain. Fourth quarter production reports from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and FMG confirm that their low cost expansions are progressing well, paving the way for even higher output in 2015/16." Mr Emslie concludes; "The strong performance of the majors comes at the expense of relatively high cost mid-tier suppliers who are scaling back investment and cutting production in response to low prices and compressed margins."
Iron ore in numbers:
- Iron ore price forecast for Q1 2015 is $67/t CFR.For CY 2015 $70/t CFR (basis 62% Fe sinter fines)
- Global iron ore production 2201 million tonnes (2014)
- Global imports 1404 million tonnes (2014)
- Chinese imports 930 million tonnes (2014)
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
|
|
|
Showing 3201 to 3205 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
