We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
 COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & Mining Consultant for Wood Mackenzie says there is little to suggest the picture is likely to pick up in 2015 with demand set to remain "slower not lower" and therefore prices will remain low for longer.
Addressing delegates at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town, Mr Emslie asserts; "It’s hard to believe, but 2015 has started even worse than 2014 finished. Having commenced January just above US$70 a tonne , the TSI 62% Index was trading at US$62/t by the close of the month resulting in a monthly average of US$67/t CFR – its lowest since May 2009."
According to Wood Mackenzie's iron ore market outlook, demand is unlikely to show any meaningful improvement until late Q1 or early Q2 due to a combination of seasonal and cyclical reasons. Mr Emslie adds: "We have lowered our Q1-15 price forecast to US$67/t CFR and our CY-15 price to US$70/t CFR (basis 62% Fe sinter fines)."
Explaining Wood Mackenzie's short-term outlook in more detail Mr Emslie says: "Iron ore prices may be languishing at their lowest level for nearly six years, but it remains difficult to make a positive case for prices in the short term. Chinese steel mills have cut production in recent weeks due to a combination of weak demand and planned maintenance and this is feeding through directly to iron ore requirements. With the Lunar New Year holidays just a few weeks away Chinese steel production will get worse before it gets better. Steel mills will not re-stock in a falling or stagnant market and when they do there should be plenty of slack in the system, as shown by the high level of inventory held at Chinese mines.
Outside of China the picture is similarly uninspiring due to a combination of seasonal and structural factors. Other than the Middle East and India none of the major iron ore importers have shown any meaningful improvement in demand, a situation that is unlikely to change in the short term."
"The outlook for Q2 is marginally better: Chinese mills should start re-stocking post Lunar New Year, driven by seasonally stronger domestic demand and a pick-up in exports of steel products. This should coincide with slightly tighter seaborne supply as Australian exports reach a temporary plateau and high cost suppliers elsewhere remain out of the market."
Wood Mackenzie warns that if the iron ore price remains in the low $60/t range then more closures from mid-tier producers seem likely and more asset write-downs are a near certainty: "As recent announcements show, there’s only so far that cost cutting can go before difficult decisions need to be taken concerning the long term viability of a mine in a structurally oversupplied market," Mr Emslie adds.
So what led to the collapse in prices? "Australian exports surged ahead by approximately 140 million tonnes (Mt) in 2014 based on investment decisions made several years ago when prices were higher and the long term view was more bullish," says Mr Emslie, "As supply ramped up in 2014, Chinese steel demand did the unthinkable and contracted for the year creating a clear disconnect between supply and demand, marking a decisive turning point for iron ore."
On Chinese imports, which crucially account for 66% of the global total, Mr Emslie says: "2014 finished on a high for Chinese imports (in volume terms not value) with China importing a record 86.9Mt in December." The total value of Chinese imports (in US dollar terms) fell in 2014, despite the volume rising by over 100Mt. Mr Emslie explains; "China’s import bill for iron ore peaked at $112 billion in 2011 (when iron ore prices averaged $168/t) but have subsequently fallen by 16% to $95 billion in 2014. China should see another significant drop in its iron ore import bill in 2015 as significantly lower prices and freight costs more than offset higher volume. We currently forecast a 30Mt rise in Chinese imports of iron ore this year with strong growth in Australian shipments partially offset by price related cutbacks elsewhere."
Pointing to more recent to iron ore news from Australia in January Mr Emslie comments on the impact of sustained oversupply; "The series of announcements and data we've seen provides further evidence of the widening gap between the major miners and the rest of the supply chain. Fourth quarter production reports from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and FMG confirm that their low cost expansions are progressing well, paving the way for even higher output in 2015/16." Mr Emslie concludes; "The strong performance of the majors comes at the expense of relatively high cost mid-tier suppliers who are scaling back investment and cutting production in response to low prices and compressed margins."
Iron ore in numbers:
- Iron ore price forecast for Q1 2015 is $67/t CFR.For CY 2015 $70/t CFR (basis 62% Fe sinter fines)
- Global iron ore production 2201 million tonnes (2014)
- Global imports 1404 million tonnes (2014)
- Chinese imports 930 million tonnes (2014)
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
|
|
|
Showing 3191 to 3195 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
|
| |
| |
|
