We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
 COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal according to analysis in CRU's new Thermal Coal Market Outlook service.
The possible volatility in import requirements is substantial, given considerable uncertainty over both domestic supply and demand. Potential volatility in imports or range of outcomes is exacerbated by the fact that India is largely self-sufficient in thermal coal, and its imports account for only ~20% of its demand.
India's domestic demand in 2014 equalled around 80% of the global seaborne market, which means that small changes in supply and demand can have a relatively large impact on total import requirements. Even if domestic coal production was to increase, there would still be issues getting the coal to market due to logistical bottlenecks. CRU has undertaken scenario analysis of potential forecast changes to India's imports, and suggests given the wide range of outcomes, its impact will be felt by the seaborne market.
-- Under CRU's base case scenario, Indian domestic production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8%, while Indian coal-fired capacity growth is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1%. Power capacity utilization rates in India, which have fallen in recent years, are expected to gradually recover, yet remain below historic levels. Under this scenario, Indian demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8%, but critically, import requirements are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5%, highlighting import sensitivity in such a large market.
-- Under a bull case for Indian imports, domestic Indian production will grow at a CAGR of 3%, more in line with historic performance, and consumption to grow in line with current coal-fired construction projects and plans. Under such as scenario, we estimate that total Indian demand would grow at a CAGR of 9% (i.e. only 2.2% higher than in the base case), but import requirements would increase at a staggering 18.5% CAGR.
-- Under a bear case scenario for imports, domestic Indian output growth is set closer to current production targets at a CAGR of 7%, whereas consumption growth is limited to the most advanced and likely Indian coal-fired construction projects coming on stream. Under such scenario, we estimate that total demand would grow at a 5.1% CAGR (i.e. only 2.5% lower than in the base case), and import requirements to increase at a very modest 5.4%, adding only 8-10 Mt to total imports/y.
India will be instrumental in determining how much seaborne material will be available for delivery to China, which acts as the clearing market, and remains a key pricing driver. The difference in Indian import volumes between the base case and the two scenarios is 90-110 Mt on either side, equivalent in size to the entire South Korean market.
India's coal industry, in many ways, is at a cross-roads. After a number of years of less than spectacular domestic production growth failing to keep up with power consumption growth, and in turn, a significant increase in and reliance on imported thermal coal, the new Modi government has stepped up plans to increase domestic coal production and power generation. The reallocation of domestic coal blocks, interaction with labour unions and the approval of forest clearances are all signs the government is willing to push ahead with domestic output growth. Whilst the plans are aggressive and needed to reverse an almost paralyzed domestic coal industry, we maintain the view that unless there are seismic changes in Indian policy and red and green tape, we are not as optimistic as the government's domestic coal production targets. We estimate Indian coal output to be 599.0 Mt in 2014 with CAGR of 4.8% between 2013 and 2019.
The imbalance between thermal coal production and thermal coal demand growth looks set to continue over the forecast period, requiring an additional 136 Mt of imports by 2019. The majority of this import growth is expected to materialize over the next three years as significant coal-fired capacity comes on stream, and CRU expects India to replace China as the world's largest import market by 2015-2016.
- This article was initially published in CRU -
About Author
Matthew Boyle | Principal Consultant, CRU
Matthew has over fifteen years experience in the metals and mining industry, and has specialized in the metallurgical and thermal coal markets for the past ten years. Prior to joining CRU in January 2014, Matthew had worked in a number of commodity research and analytical roles, including Vale. Matthew has extensive overseas experience, having worked in Tokyo, London, and Singapore, as well as Sydney and Brisbane in Australia. Matthew holds a triple-major Bachelor of Arts (Honours) degree in economic geography from the University of Sydney, and has completed technical coal utilisation courses from McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
|
|
|
Showing 3236 to 3240 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
