We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
 2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat differently. Adverse weather conditions in the US during winter were the dominant factor, creating a difficult first half of the year for the global economy. The developing and emerging markets continued on a downward trend, while a sunnier outlook from the US and Europe had the effect of moving the already more advanced economies forward.
The quantitative easing programme of the US Central Bank has now ended. This is a landmark in terms of recovery. Following a quadrupling of the US monetary base, unemployment has come down, the stock market has gone up and economic growth has become more robust. The UK has followed the same path as the US, with similar results. This is outstanding in the otherwise sluggish European economic development.
In Japan, “Abenomics” is facing headwinds caused by a hike in sales taxes and a subsequent return to recession. Japan’s economy has been stagnating for decades, and it is unlikely to move much further forward from this in 2015.
The slowing of the Chinese economy is adding uncertainty to the level of shipping demand generated in the Far East. Its soft landing seems to incur turbulence, with some indicators suggesting the official GDP data may not give us the full story.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies is set for a comeback in 2015, with GDP-growth improving from 4.4% in 2014 to 5.0% in 2015. The advanced economies are likely to stay on the recovery track, and improve their GDP-growth to 2.3% in 2015 (1.8% in 2014). The common challenges remain poor inflation expectations, a lack of structural reforms and lack of job creation. There is clearly room for more political initiatives in 2015 to support the global economy.
Supply: A stalling orderbook means reality has hit home
The total orderbook remained unchanged during 2014. This signals that the industry is now realising that more new orders may not be the right thing to do after all.
The fundamental oversupply of capacity in all of the major shipping segments has not changed much over the past year. A higher level of demand has only just matched the net supply of new tonnage coming on stream.
Crude oil tankers are the only exception to the general status quo in the balance of freight markets. A multi-year low inflow of new crude oil tankers has stimulated earnings growth of some 20% compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the growing supply pressure in product tankers neutralised most of the growing demand side, with earnings coming in just a little shy of 2013.
Container ships keep getting bigger, breaking previous size records for both individual ships and the average size across the fleet. The CSCL Globe, with a capacity of 19,000 TEU, was launched in November, and the average TEU capacity of a 2014-newbuild increased to 7,400 TEU, up from 6,600 TEU in 2013. Next year the scheduled average is 8,000 TEU.
Looking forward to 2015, BIMCO expects the dry bulk fleet to have found a new “normal” level of supply side growth, expanding by 5.1% (5.5% in 2014). Regrettably, the level is still too high to reduce the glut of ships in the market. For tankers, BIMCO expects the dirty segment to grow by 1.7% (1.3% in 2014). Three years of low supply growth has led to more positive short-term prospects for crude oil tankers. In the clean segment, the estimated supply growth for 2015 is 4.6% (4.3% in 2014). Supply growth in the container ship segment is expected to drop to 5.8% in 2015 (6.2% in 2014).
Dry Bulk: New challenges await as demand slows down
BIMCO expects dry bulk demand to slow in 2015 to a rate of 4-5%. Iron ore demand will again be the centre of attention. In recent years, demand growth has been biased heavily towards the Capesize segment. In 2014, 70% of the total volume growth came from increased iron ore demand driven by China. BIMCO expects this trend to continue, with Capesizes outperforming the smaller sizes relatively.
The strong iron ore demand in 2014 was somewhat neutralised by weaker coal demand from China. Meanwhile, the Indonesian ban on exports of unprocessed bauxite and nickel ore resulted in a weak Supramax market in the Far East.
Towards the end of the year, the late arrival of strong exports of iron ore out of Brazil proved to be insufficient to deliver on the promise of 2013, when rates for all segments went up. While earnings had hit the floor in 2012, BIMCO expected 2014 to build on the optimism of 2013 and continue on the road to recovery. That did not materialise.
Tanker: what is the “new normal” demand level?
The crude oil tanker market started 2014 on a very positive note, with a five-year-high for earnings in the first quarter. The market’s strength showed clearly in early autumn and in the current winter market. The export of crude oil from West Africa has shifted from West to East as the US has reduced its imports to almost zero. This has given the demand side momentum, as West Africa now export more to the Far East, creating many more ton-miles.
For product tankers, the final quarter of 2014 contrasts greatly with the dull and flat market we have seen for most of the year. Despite US oil product export growth slowing down, it remains a positive story overall. Demand growth just managed to match supply growth, as the positive events arrived late in the year for the shipping market as well as in global economics.
Falling oil prices stirred some positive unrest in the tanker market, with rising tonnage demand in their wake. In spite of the price drop arising from weak oil demand and oversupply in the market, the current low and volatile commodity price is good for trading and shipping.
With a dramatic fall in bunker prices, it is vital for a continued industry recovery that all shipping segments resist higher speeds. Failure to do so may compromise improvement of the fundamental balance, which is essential to bring prosperity back.
Container: Will strong demand and slow steaming remain?
Strong demand growth on the large-volume trades from Far East to US and Europe has brought lower volatility in freight rates on key trades while re-activating most of the previously idle ships.
However, during peak season, the steep drop in freight rates on the Far East to Europe trade lane made it clear that the utmost care is constantly required for the supply side, while the introduction of ever-larger ships continues.
Improved industry earnings currently rest on one central requirement: slow steaming and defence of individual market share. This highly competitive market only returns a positive margin if the cost base is extremely low.
BIMCO expects containership supply to continue to grow at its “new normal” level of around 6%, making the demand side a focal point. European demand has been stronger than private consumption figures indicated, and we may well see further improvement for US demand. The US East Coast could build further on a remarkable year as the ports prepare for the imminent arrival of ultra-large container ships. Enlargement projects in the Panama Canal and Suez Canal will further influence the deployment of ships.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
|
|
|
Showing 3246 to 3250 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
|
| |
| |
|
