We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
 2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat differently. Adverse weather conditions in the US during winter were the dominant factor, creating a difficult first half of the year for the global economy. The developing and emerging markets continued on a downward trend, while a sunnier outlook from the US and Europe had the effect of moving the already more advanced economies forward.
The quantitative easing programme of the US Central Bank has now ended. This is a landmark in terms of recovery. Following a quadrupling of the US monetary base, unemployment has come down, the stock market has gone up and economic growth has become more robust. The UK has followed the same path as the US, with similar results. This is outstanding in the otherwise sluggish European economic development.
In Japan, “Abenomics” is facing headwinds caused by a hike in sales taxes and a subsequent return to recession. Japan’s economy has been stagnating for decades, and it is unlikely to move much further forward from this in 2015.
The slowing of the Chinese economy is adding uncertainty to the level of shipping demand generated in the Far East. Its soft landing seems to incur turbulence, with some indicators suggesting the official GDP data may not give us the full story.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies is set for a comeback in 2015, with GDP-growth improving from 4.4% in 2014 to 5.0% in 2015. The advanced economies are likely to stay on the recovery track, and improve their GDP-growth to 2.3% in 2015 (1.8% in 2014). The common challenges remain poor inflation expectations, a lack of structural reforms and lack of job creation. There is clearly room for more political initiatives in 2015 to support the global economy.
Supply: A stalling orderbook means reality has hit home
The total orderbook remained unchanged during 2014. This signals that the industry is now realising that more new orders may not be the right thing to do after all.
The fundamental oversupply of capacity in all of the major shipping segments has not changed much over the past year. A higher level of demand has only just matched the net supply of new tonnage coming on stream.
Crude oil tankers are the only exception to the general status quo in the balance of freight markets. A multi-year low inflow of new crude oil tankers has stimulated earnings growth of some 20% compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the growing supply pressure in product tankers neutralised most of the growing demand side, with earnings coming in just a little shy of 2013.
Container ships keep getting bigger, breaking previous size records for both individual ships and the average size across the fleet. The CSCL Globe, with a capacity of 19,000 TEU, was launched in November, and the average TEU capacity of a 2014-newbuild increased to 7,400 TEU, up from 6,600 TEU in 2013. Next year the scheduled average is 8,000 TEU.
Looking forward to 2015, BIMCO expects the dry bulk fleet to have found a new “normal” level of supply side growth, expanding by 5.1% (5.5% in 2014). Regrettably, the level is still too high to reduce the glut of ships in the market. For tankers, BIMCO expects the dirty segment to grow by 1.7% (1.3% in 2014). Three years of low supply growth has led to more positive short-term prospects for crude oil tankers. In the clean segment, the estimated supply growth for 2015 is 4.6% (4.3% in 2014). Supply growth in the container ship segment is expected to drop to 5.8% in 2015 (6.2% in 2014).
Dry Bulk: New challenges await as demand slows down
BIMCO expects dry bulk demand to slow in 2015 to a rate of 4-5%. Iron ore demand will again be the centre of attention. In recent years, demand growth has been biased heavily towards the Capesize segment. In 2014, 70% of the total volume growth came from increased iron ore demand driven by China. BIMCO expects this trend to continue, with Capesizes outperforming the smaller sizes relatively.
The strong iron ore demand in 2014 was somewhat neutralised by weaker coal demand from China. Meanwhile, the Indonesian ban on exports of unprocessed bauxite and nickel ore resulted in a weak Supramax market in the Far East.
Towards the end of the year, the late arrival of strong exports of iron ore out of Brazil proved to be insufficient to deliver on the promise of 2013, when rates for all segments went up. While earnings had hit the floor in 2012, BIMCO expected 2014 to build on the optimism of 2013 and continue on the road to recovery. That did not materialise.
Tanker: what is the “new normal” demand level?
The crude oil tanker market started 2014 on a very positive note, with a five-year-high for earnings in the first quarter. The market’s strength showed clearly in early autumn and in the current winter market. The export of crude oil from West Africa has shifted from West to East as the US has reduced its imports to almost zero. This has given the demand side momentum, as West Africa now export more to the Far East, creating many more ton-miles.
For product tankers, the final quarter of 2014 contrasts greatly with the dull and flat market we have seen for most of the year. Despite US oil product export growth slowing down, it remains a positive story overall. Demand growth just managed to match supply growth, as the positive events arrived late in the year for the shipping market as well as in global economics.
Falling oil prices stirred some positive unrest in the tanker market, with rising tonnage demand in their wake. In spite of the price drop arising from weak oil demand and oversupply in the market, the current low and volatile commodity price is good for trading and shipping.
With a dramatic fall in bunker prices, it is vital for a continued industry recovery that all shipping segments resist higher speeds. Failure to do so may compromise improvement of the fundamental balance, which is essential to bring prosperity back.
Container: Will strong demand and slow steaming remain?
Strong demand growth on the large-volume trades from Far East to US and Europe has brought lower volatility in freight rates on key trades while re-activating most of the previously idle ships.
However, during peak season, the steep drop in freight rates on the Far East to Europe trade lane made it clear that the utmost care is constantly required for the supply side, while the introduction of ever-larger ships continues.
Improved industry earnings currently rest on one central requirement: slow steaming and defence of individual market share. This highly competitive market only returns a positive margin if the cost base is extremely low.
BIMCO expects containership supply to continue to grow at its “new normal” level of around 6%, making the demand side a focal point. European demand has been stronger than private consumption figures indicated, and we may well see further improvement for US demand. The US East Coast could build further on a remarkable year as the ports prepare for the imminent arrival of ultra-large container ships. Enlargement projects in the Panama Canal and Suez Canal will further influence the deployment of ships.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
|
|
|
Showing 3241 to 3245 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
|
| |
| |
|
