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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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