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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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