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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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