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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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