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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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