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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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