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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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