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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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