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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
Friday, 10 October 14
INDONESIA TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM COAL INDUSTRY - JP
The government is planning to launch a program to develop the downstream coal industry to increase the commodity’s added value, an official h ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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