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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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