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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
Friday, 31 October 14
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT ROSE 27.42% FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: Publicly listed coal miner Bukit Asam reported solid profits in the first nine months of 2014 year.
Coal miner Bukit Asam manage ...
Friday, 31 October 14
U.S PRODUCED AROUND 19.3 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
COAL & GRAINS SUPPORT PANAMAX AND IRON ORE SUPPORTS CAPES
Handy
The Atlantic market has been flat this week. Rates are up about US$ 200 from last week on the TA´s, but the volumes are about the sam ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
DOES A LOU ARBITRATION AGREEMENT FOR THE UNDERLYING CARGO CLAIM COMPLETELY REPLACE THE BILL OF LADING ARBITRATION CLAUSE? - INCE &CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the context of cargo claims brought under four bills of lading, the Commercial Court has recently considered whether a ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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