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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
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