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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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