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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low p ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN IN JULY; LOST 1.62%
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia again revised down the coal bench mark price in July. HBA for month of J ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIA STATE-CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM TO TRADE COAL ON-LINE THROUGH JFX
COALspot.com: Indonesian state owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) has teamed up with Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) to sell ...
Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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