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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 18 June 14
CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTION SETS RECORD DURING FIRST TEN DAYS OF JUNE - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Recently released data shows that average daily crude steel production at China's key steel mills hit a record high of 1.833 million tons durin ...
Wednesday, 18 June 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Back in January the expectations for Q3 and Q4 were more than great. Talks and claims for a rising BDI and a healthy market were coming from everyw ...
Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand bef ...
Monday, 16 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY FALL 2.34 % MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
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Showing 3651 to 3655 news of total 6871 |
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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