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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 19 June 14
PANAMAX: VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THE ALL TIME LOW RECORD - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rat ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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